Conrad de Quiros wrote on his op-ed column about the need for Perspective in light of Falcon that sank the capital.

When Falcon hit the country last Thursday, you could reasonably expect government to be part of the cure and not of the [...]]]> Tweet

Conrad de Quiros wrote on his op-ed column about the need for Perspective in light of Falcon that sank the capital.

When Falcon hit the country last Thursday, you could reasonably expect government to be part of the cure and not of the disease. You could reasonably expect government to mount a relief drive to assist the distressed, to take in private donations and distribute them rather than steal them (or put premature campaign paraphernalia in them), to not try to figure out how to profit in some way from your misery. When Falcon hit the country last Thursday, you had the comfort of knowing you had a government on your side and not against it. As you would when other disasters strike.

And you complain?

I agree with de Quiros. As I wrote in yesterday’s op-ed piece, it’s a beautiful day When Ondoy hit, did we have a government? However imperfect, we at least have a government this time.

It’s a new day. Falcon has left the nation, and the Sun is finally shinning. We now begin to pickup the pieces. The realization that now needs to take place is this. We need to be masters of the rain.

In the aftermath of Falcon, there [...]]]> Tweet

It’s a new day. Falcon has left the nation, and the Sun is finally shinning. We now begin to pickup the pieces. The realization that now needs to take place is this. We need to be masters of the rain.

In the aftermath of Falcon, there was a running debate between Palace spokesperson @abi_valte and Congresswoman @mitosmagsaysay. The former in her capacity as the Voice of the Palace. The latter in her capacity as Congresswoman Arroyo’s proxy. It was a spirited debate on flood control. Ms. Valte argued that in the 9 years of GMA, there was no sort of Flood Control program. Magsaysay argued that in the year Aquino was in power, the government did nothing.

This is the beauty of democracy after all. We have a discussion of the issues. We see the differences of ideas, and differences of opinion and philosophy.

Ms. Valte’s arguments are sound. Nine years of the former regime and this is where the nation find itself in. Picking up pieces of the puzzle, and trying desperately to put it all together. At times it would be like the seems are falling apart. And often, failing miserably.

Pick one branch of government to be its poster boy, and you would find a microcosm of the entire government. Spratlys? Just look at the Philippine Navy’s flagship? Social Media? If you people only know how Team @govph and the guys from DOST are managing to keep servers together, those people ought to have an award. It goes on and on, from education to healthcare to local government to police.

I would imagine the Philippines to be the Millennium Falcon. A hunk of junk on the inside and the outside. It is a miracle it flies. And it flies because underneath all the politics, there are still brave men and women in government keeping the cogs running.

Ms. Magasaysay has a point too. In the last year of the Aquino government, why is there still flooding in Metro Manila, and elsewhere? And this is the trust of the government’s critics. They seem to say, “You guys are this good, and you make the rest of us look bad (i.e. GMA), why aren’t things better?” It is the same old trust: be better. Rebuild it. And yet they too fall short. All they have are complaints and no solutions. It would be great that as they critic government for its in action they give a counter-proposal. What has Congress done lately for flood control, Ms. Magsasysay?

To a degree, these critics have a point. To a degree. The last year hasn’t been perfect. One of the biggest hurdles this government hasn’t been able to overcome, what I call, Bureaucratic inertia. We have to overcome, gravity. There is an escape velocity momentum that needs to be reached, and in some degree, it hasn’t, couldn’t or the government forced itself not to.

One of the reasons I’ve observed in the last year as to why Government purposely forced itself not to overcome this inertia is because of a strict adherence to law. It can not simply stop doing things because it is a good idea to. There is a long litany of laws and statures that could prevent it from doing so. The government can not just break the law. And this is gravity at work.

So you will find in many instance, the Aquino government has purposely slowed things down. Whether it is spending or awarding contracts, or executing a plan. It is slow, and excruciating.

Looking back at Ms. Magsaysay’s argument that the government hasn’t done much in the past year. In the issue of Weather? And response?

@MMDA has done for example a remarkable job at handling the event. Yes, the city sank, but these people were communicating with the public tirelessly over the last few days. They have responded to events professionally.

PAGASA has radically changed in the year Aquino was swept in power. We do get updates, and we do get forecasts. They are now more communicative with the public. Yes, there are issues. PAGASA has still great difficulty translating the information they get into layman’s language. What I’ve observed is that this isn’t just a PAGASA issue. Most of the local weather forecasters like typhoon2000.com send us a whole litany of data. We still need to get these people to be able to communicate to the public in non-scientific terms. To simplify the information. I think is is more about getting scientists to communicate.

PAGASA sensors have been doing a good job. It isn’t perfect by far. And there are still loads of issues that need to be addressed. The issue of rainfall prediction hasn’t been addressed. Whether this is a matter of lacking the equipment to properly do the job, or lack of qualified personnel to do so, I do not know. My point is, PAGASA has come a long way.

There is a wealth of difference between Government’s response to Ondoy, and the Government’s response to Falcon. And there is a wealth of difference in the response to the flooding in Mindanao and the damage in the nation’s capital.

The one in Manila seemed to be being handled rather well. The disaster in Cotabato, the impression is the response has been slow. Whether it is because the news hasn’t been explosive, or because gravity in Mindanao is far, far more powerful, I do not know.

The talk on flood control for Metro Manila is a complex beast. It has been the topic of discussion for years. I believe the solution is a myriad different things.

First, and very importantly is the social context. No amount of technology is going to work unless we the people stop clogging our sewers with Garbage. There now has to be a consensus among people living in our cities to dispose of our garbage properly. There has to be a better way to dispose of this garbage and it must be an intercity solution. For Metro Manila, it can not simply be Quezon City doing one thing, or Makati doing another thing. It has to be a consensus.

Second, I think our cities really need to adhere to strict building permits and analyze weaknesses in Metro Manila. @mlq3 did an Ondoy portmortem in which he pointed out a study in 2003 an vulnerabilities for the nation’s capital. This is something local government should do, and ought to be doing. This isn’t limited to Metro Manila, but elsewhere, and throughout the country. It is time to step up. This is, I argue something they, and we can do without having to look to the National government to save us.

Third, of course is the technology. What can flood control be doing. What should we do with our dams, and how do we get decent water into the city, and still irrigate our countryside without relying heavily on our dams.

The Issue of “flood control”, is a complex beast that tackles not just Metro Manila’s issues, but also the areas surrounding it. The matter of our dams, and irrigation is something that ought to be addressed and it is our long term planning that need to be put in place.

This is an issue that touches base with so many people. The answers are complex. Yet, we can do it as communities. It has to start with communities. If for so many years, our nation has relied on the national government to save our collective asses, now is the time that each community can take it upon themselves to start that processes. It is this culture of Bayanihan on the ground that we have to instill and practice.

To critic the government is one thing. It is easy to critic someone, to be a backseat driver. So as much as I respect Ms. Magsaysay and Ms. Arroyo’s and the government’s critics, they should back it up with counterproposals and solutions. Not just appealing to people’s fears. And not just Magasaysay and Arroyo, the whole of us who critic the government. The simple snide cynical, and often bitter comments are no longer enough. It isn’t enough anymore to say, “PNoy, you suck! Or Ganun talaga si PNoy, isang tamad na presidente or Ah, that’s because he spends his time dating.”

That is the gospel of old.

That’s not enough anymore. It just makes people irrelevant. So, “With or without you”, would the nation go?

“Sleight of hand, and twist of fate
On a bed of nails she makes me wait
And I wait without you

Through the storm we reach the shore
You give it all but I want more
And I’m waiting for you”

Could we blame Gloria Arroyo? In a way she carries that blame having been in power for Nine years, but generations before could be blamed too. The problems we are facing now is indicative of who we are as a nation. We haven’t been the deep, forward looking people. Call this our coming of age. Now comes the time when we grow up, and build a nation.

I think this is a better song to describe where we are as a nation.

This is the day after Falcon. The sun is shinning. Now, we march forward into nation building. And nation building isn’t simply about complaining about how the government sucks. It’s what you can do for your country. It’s a Beautiful Day.

Last night, Manila fell once again.  Drowned after 10 to 15 mm per hour of rain poured down the capital.  Tropical Storm Falcon was far off at sea.  It was Falcon pulling in monsoon.  Pretty much, productivity, and health go down the drain when the capital goes [...]]]> Tweet

Last night, Manila fell once again.  Drowned after 10 to 15 mm per hour of rain poured down the capital.  Tropical Storm Falcon was far off at sea.  It was Falcon pulling in monsoon.  Pretty much, productivity, and health go down the drain when the capital goes under water.

A LOT has changed at PAGASA.  In fact it is way better now at communicating information to the public.  A LOT still needs to change.  We still need the weather bureau for instance to be able to translate the scientific data into real world language.  And more importantly, I think the weather bureau needs to be able to determine the amount of rainfall that would strike any part of the country.

We need to be able to focus on saying 10 to 15 mm is expected in 3 hours, or in a day.  Is that do-able?  Is it a matter of getting the right equipment?  The right gear?  Is it a matter of getting more experts in the field to do this?

Knowing the rate of rainfall will give the MMDA some idea of what sort of traffic is going to come.  It gives the PNP and LGUs and disaster relief teams some idea of what equipment they’ll need and where to deploy.  It gives the DepEd and universities an idea whether classes should be suspended or not.  It gives offices an idea when to send their employees home to work from home.

We’re talking about billions of pesos in productivity lost every time the country’s capital sinks. We’re talking about people getting sick, or worse get caught up in flood and swept by a manhole.  We’re talking about infrastructure development that we could tailor to meet the demands of the times.  And it isn’t just in the capital, this could be applied across the country.

We need to invest on this, and invest on this as soon as possible.  PAGASA is our first line of defense in a nation that gets 15 to 20 storms a year.  It doesn’t have to be an Ondoy level typhoon— even this monsoon is packing more trouble than a storm.

Let’s also try to get more people to telecommute.  Let’s get more people to hold meetings over Skype or some other voice over IP.  Let’s get to use technology to make productivity better.   That means better, faster Internet as well.  In a country that gets this sort of weather year-in and year-out we have to find ways to keep creating money, and keep working while the elements are against us.

Let’s give PAGASA all the tools they will need, and all the funding they will need because this really translates to so much more— health of children, safety of our people, and productivity for our economy.

(Updated: 10:30 PM, Manila Time) Typhoon Chedeng (Songda) remains at sea. Chedeng is classified as a Category 3 storm which means it is packing more than 194 kilometer per hour wind, according to Weather Underground. The typhoon continues to pour rain. Areas around the country like [...]]]> Tweet

Click image to enlarge - Typhoon Chedeng (Songda) Storm Track 25 May 2011 Wednesday

According to Typhoon2000.com, the outer rainbands of the storm is spreading across Bicol region, Masbate, and Eastern Visayas so those areas should expect moderate to strong winds as well as rainfall between 5 to 200 mm. Imagine rainbands as the “reach” of the storm.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration meanwhile said that Chedeng could dump between 32 to 64 mm of rainfall.

Chedeng’s eye remains at sea in spite of it growing more powerful. Storm tracks project that it will continue to cruise along the Philippines’ eastern coastline. Of course this data could change. PAGASA meanwhile predicts that the storm will strike land at Aurora-Isabela.

Coastal areas are warned of storm surges and tall waves and above normal tide levels.

The south west monsoon is also expected to affect Palawan and Western Mindanao, which means those areas will experience rain. Likewise areas like Metro Manila are expected to receive the same foul weather. So everyone please expect heavy rain, and flooding even in areas that are not covered by storm signals.

PAGASA issued Severe Weather Bulletin No. 10 and has raised storm signal no. 2 in the following regions: Catanduanes, Sorsogon,
Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, and Samar provinces. Signal no. 1 is up over Aurora, Marinduque, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Islands, Quezon, Polilio Island, Biliran Island and Northern Leyte.

No Storm signal is up over Mindanao, but the weather bureau says the area could experience Gale force winds along the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

Storm track credit: Weather Underground

This is a developing story.

RT @nikobaua: Phl Navy on stand-by for #Chedeng. This is their Gunboat deployed for the Eastern Seaboard of Luzon http://twitpic.com/528jm3

May 25, 2011 3:49 pm via HootSuiteReplyRetweetFavorite

@ANCALERTS

ABS-CBN News Channel

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration tracked tropical storm Songda (Philippine name: Chedeng) at 1,070 kilometers East of Northern Mindanao. That was 10 o’clock in the morning, local time, moving towards the Philippines at 11 kilometers per hour. The Philippine weather bureau is still [...]]]> Tweet

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration tracked tropical storm Songda (Philippine name: Chedeng) at 1,070 kilometers East of Northern Mindanao. That was 10 o’clock in the morning, local time, moving towards the Philippines at 11 kilometers per hour. The Philippine weather bureau is still using the International codename because the tropical storm is outside the Philippine area of responsibility. @dost_pagasa will switch to “Chedeng,” as soon as it enters the Philippines, and will likewise publish storm track projections.

The weather bureau noted that rainshowers and thunderstorms in Metro Manila is not due to tropical storm Chedeng. @dost_pagasa says it is because of local convection that forms thunderstorm clouds.

Current projections by Weather Underground reveal that Songda could reach over 200 kilometer per hour winds, with gusts reaching 250 kilometers per hour, and is projected to be at latitude 15.1, longitude 126.2 on Thursday, 26 May 2011 as a Category 3 storm.

Image credit: Weather Underground

@vandolph08 SONGDA is the international name of the tropical cyclone, but once it entered PAR, it will be named"CHEDENG"(local name)

May 22, 2011 3:12 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@dost_pagasa

PAGASA-DOST

latest satellite imagehttp://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/sat_images/satpic.jpg

May 22, 2011 3:19 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@dost_pagasa

PAGASA-DOST

latest satellite imagehttp://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/sat_images/satpic.jpg

May 22, 2011 3:19 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@dost_pagasa

PAGASA-DOST

rainshowers and thunderstorms in Metro Manila is not because of the tropical storm.

May 22, 2011 4:29 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@dost_pagasa

PAGASA-DOST

Rainshowers and thunderstorms in Metro Manila is due to local convection that eventually forms localized thunderstorm clouds

May 22, 2011 4:45 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite

@dost_pagasa

PAGASA-DOST

Tropical storm Bebeng (International: Aere) struck eastern Philippines. The storm brought 85 kilometer winds, and much rain.

Editor’s Note: see Typhoon Bebeng strikes the Philippines for 9 May 2011 (Monday morning) update. This entry has been superseded.

For Images of Metro Manila Traffic and Flood [...]]]> Tweet

Tropical storm Bebeng (International: Aere) struck eastern Philippines. The storm brought 85 kilometer winds, and much rain.

Editor’s Note: see Typhoon Bebeng strikes the Philippines for 9 May 2011 (Monday morning) update. This entry has been superseded.

For Images of Metro Manila Traffic and Flood Watch for Sunday 8 May 2011 see this entry.

According to the Philippine Atomospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration was located 70 kilometers North of Daet, Camarines Norte. It still retained its maximum sustained winds of 85 kilometers per hour. According to PAGASA, “Tropical Storm Bebeng is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over the rest of Southern Luzon and of Visayas.”

See Metro Manila Storm and Flood Watch

Projected storm tracks from PAGASA and Weather Underground that Bebeng will hit Northern Philippines beginning Monday morning. PAGASA also updated their Storm Track projection:

The Philippine weather bureau had raised storm signal alerts over a number of provinces.

Storm signal no. 2:
Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Nueva Viscaya and, Camarines Norte.

Storm signal no. 1: Catanduanes
Albay, Burias Island, Camarines Sur, Southern Quezon, Marinduque, Batangas, Laguna, Cavite
Rizal, Bulacan, Bataan, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Ifugao
Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, Cagayan and Metro Manila.

Signal no. 2: Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Polilio Island, Quezon, Burias Island, Ticao Island, and Northern Samar.  These provinces will experience 60 to 100 kilometer winds.

Signal No. 1 was raised over Masbate, Marinduque, Romblon, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Viscaya, Quirino, Aurora, Isabela, Eastern Samar , and Western Samar.  PAGASA projects that these provinces will have 30 to 60 kilometer winds.

Residents of low lying, and mountainous areas under storm signals are advised to be watch out for flash floods and landslides.  Likewise residents of coastal areas are to be on alert for storm surges.

Image credit:

Typhoon Aere Stormtrack via Weather Underground;

PAGASA stormtrack, and rainfall map, public domain